Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
